Monday, February 23, 2004

Social - Political analysis (Wooooooow)

About 47% of Iranians voted last Friday. We're pissed. I personally thought less people would vote. I believe 10 to 15 percent of these people didn't have a choice & had to vote (Because of their jobs or life situations), but at least 30 to 35 percent of Iranians voted because they like the government and think Islamic Republic of Iran will bring them happiness and security.
1.50-60 % of Iranians didn't vote, it means they can not find anybody who can solve their problems, somehow it means they think these problems can not be solved in such organization.
2.These people are the towners, they have the knowledge, money and facilities.
3.Conservatives who won the election may surprise us. They are the people who changed that street's name to start political relations with Egypt. They desperately want to start a dialogue with the U.S.
4.Conservatives know how many of these votes are real, they know the world's opinion about Islamic fundamentalism and governments like Iran's.
5.Reformists are still in the parliament (For a couple of months) & now we know some of them who can present ideas so close to ours. After all I think they can do a better job if they don't have a governmental job.
So it's not the end of the world, it will not be worse than these past few years. Actually I think it will be interesting.
Three things may happen to us:
Plan A: Conservatives will make business contracts with anyone around the world & they'll let foreigners invest their money here. I think they will ease up a little about the social boundaries and they will try to show the world they can rule Iran quiet and secure. They will try to satisfy everyone outside and inside. Although I don't think it will work for them, it won't be bad for us.
Plan B: Hardliners will rule Iran & they will make the decisions, in that case they dig their own graves.
Plan C: Something unexpected happens, like an attack by a foreign country or a riot and ???
We have to face the reality, reform did not work the right way, it's better to move on anyway. When we move we can change, if we stop nothing will happen. Anything which connects us to the world is precious. Iran contains a big potential energy, it will explode soon, it's a natural law.

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