Thursday, July 10, 2003

Analysis

Here comes the most anticipated day of the year so far. I don't think it will go anywhere. There are maybe some small street fights but nothing important. Universities are closed, Parliament members asked students not to do anything on this day, which means they're afraid for people's lives. Students wrote a letter to head of UN and asked for help. Their leaders have been arrested (kidnapped) after a news conference. Head of Mosharekat party sent a letter to president Khatami & said there are some activities going on in prisons to make students and other reformist prisoners confess against members of his party. United States sending positive signals to the government and I heard some of the opposition TVs broadcasting from US & England went off.
I think the US government is playing a game with Iran; they ease up on Iran just when every country is forcing Iran about nuclear activities & human rights. It will make Iran's leaders accept their demands easier & after Iran accepted something they going to get hard again to move another step. By the way they realized they don't have any alternatives in Iran. so they have to show a little tenderness to solve some problems.
I wish this happens: Iran hardliners arrest some of reformists so in a couple of month a group of reformists become the opposition. University students have done that already. They will be the best, people will like them, they know what is going on in Iran & they can work with the world especially United States. By end of the year, when it's gonna be parliament election and no one is going to attend this opposition can work with axes of power in Iran to compete hardliners and may do something. Here is something very important; I don't think we can make it through democracy without people like Rafsanjani. Because they are way more powerful than we think. They have all the money and industries & the good thing is they are ready for a deal.

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